Parliamentary Majority Deadlock: Can Erdoğan Secure a New Presidential Term?
Al-Taj News – A new confirmation from Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intends to run in the upcoming presidential elections has raised questions about an early political battle over the timing of the vote and the ability to secure the parliamentary majority that would allow Erdoğan to run again.
Erdoğan’s legal adviser, Mehmet Uçum, said the elections could be held on April 16, 2028, just three weeks ahead of their constitutionally scheduled date, but this would require the approval of 360 out of 600 lawmakers in favor of “renewing the elections,” considering that Erdoğan would thereby run in his final presidential election under the Constitution.
The ruling party’s plan, along with Erdoğan, is based on the Turkish Constitution, which stipulates that Parliament can decide to renew elections with a three-fifths majority of its members, or 360 lawmakers. If Parliament makes such a decision during the president’s second term, he becomes entitled to run for a third and final consecutive term.
The Need for a Parliamentary Majority
The path the AK Party intends to pursue to ensure Erdoğan’s candidacy faces the obstacle of securing the support of 360 lawmakers, given the current distribution of parliamentary seats. The AK Party and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), together hold around 326 seats, 34 votes short of the required 360 threshold.
Meanwhile, the remaining seats are held by opposition or independent parties with differing positions toward the government, including Islamist parties that share the ruling party’s conservative roots but oppose its approach to governance. This makes reaching the required majority dependent on alliances that are not easy, but rather complex and difficult.
Turkish writer and political analyst Uğur Arslan said that the main challenge to Erdoğan’s presidential candidacy is ensuring victory against his rivals, rather than securing parliamentary approval for his candidacy, particularly as economic conditions continue to deteriorate for broad segments of voters and the opposition seeks to win their votes.
